The W-Shaped Recession


This just in, as Paul Harvey likes to say, from Standard & Poor’s Economics. The purveyors of the so-called dismal science are sometimes inadvertantly funny. To wit:

“First-quarter growth was little revised (0.9% from 1.0%), but the 2007 fourth quarter was revised to minus 0.2% from plus 0.6%, making the downturn look much more like a “W”-shaped recession, according to S&P Economics.”

Let’s hope the media remembers to call it the “W” recession once the next President is in office so we’ll remember that this mess is the legacy of George W. Bush.

I couldn’t resist posting this as a comment to Barry Ritholtz’ coverage of the surprising jump in unemployment claims. His site, The Big Picture, is indispensable, in my humble opinion, for its unvarnished coverage of the economic scene.

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8 comments on “The W-Shaped Recession

  1. Pingback: Reading the Tea Leaves on Wall Street « Astrology Mundo

  2. Hello Monica,
    I have few questions. (Any one can answer if they care).
    1) What is the impact of conjunction of Mars and Venus on the markets? And what if the moon joins the conjunction? This is going to happen on 6/19/09.
    2) Jupiter/Neptune conjunction was seen as good to the markets, when both are retrogade and when they both conjunct again (in aquaris), i believe that too should be good, is this right? If not, why?
    3) What takes priority? Aspect or planet?
    — Bad planet, good aspect, will the result be good or bad?
    — Good planet, bad aspect, will the result be good or bad?
    (In my 1c view, bad planets include, Saturn, Uranus, Mars)

    Greatly appreciate your response.
    Thanks,
    Admirer

  3. Dear Admirer,
    If I knew the answers to your questions, I’d be sitting pretty on my own private island somewhere, having harnessed astrology to the markets.

    I would say the Venus/Mars conjunction being “translated” by the moon could lead to some positive news and an uptick in the market, but it could be quite fleeting.

    A lot of professional astrologers (which doesn’t include me) are having a hard time calling the Jupiter/Neptune conjunction. One difficulty is that we have a Saturn/Uranus opposition going on at the same time.

    I personally think Jupiter/Neptune going to lead to hyperinflation and/or a major devaluation of the dollar. Right now, it’s giving us the illusion (Neptune) that everything is going to be O.K. (Jupiter).

    I can’t tell if you’re a professional trader, but you really need to be following Ray Merriman’s commentary, which can be found at Star IQ. Although his background is more in commodities than equities, he knows what he’s talking about.

    Question No. 3 is the hardest to answer. I don’t feel qualified to do so, except to say “too much of a good thing” is sometimes not good in astrology, and “good” planets with “bad aspects,” say a Venus/Jupiter square, can cause overexpansion and overindulgence.

    Thanks for writing and good luck. Best, Monica

  4. Critical astrological configuration to come : Mars square Jupiter on July 6/7. Empirically, I follow this for over 30 years, Jupiter/Mars aspects are the most salient planetary influence on the market I happen to know.

    This time the M/J square will take place at a full Moon. Could be a turning point in the market, i.e. if it continues up until then, it will head south from there…

    And as Monica says, luck is always recommended. Possible that Buffett has some more options to sell on his holdings as well, for whom is shopping for a “protected engagement” or for the sheer fun to play “with or against some big guy”.

  5. Thank you very much Monica, what you said is very true. And thank you Paul. Glad to meet a 30 year experienced guy. Your post popped a question in my mind. Mars squaring jupiter.. you think its gonna mark a top in the market if it continues to go up till then? i am not saying that I don’t agree with you, but just curious to understand what the effect may be. I also admit that I don’t even have a month experience in following these planets. My question is, Usually when Jupiter and Mars are direct, a square b/w then should be bad for markets. But now, Jupiter is in retrograde and I ‘think’ (just 1%) if that energy might turn positive for markets, pushing financials up further. Because, this wednesday 6/17 sun trined jupiter, which should have been usually good but that turned out to be real bad for financials.

    Can you please enlighten me?

  6. Not only enlighten, but putting on the brake: Your way of thought appears far to complicated for this purpose. Does not matter too much if Mars or Ju are direct or retro. What counts is that they aspect “tensly”.

    As for the maket, I repeat with different wording: should it hold up to the date of July 6/7 or even put on a rally till then, chances are that that will have been it for a while. Should the S&P 500 brake below 900 these nextday or two, take your money and enjoy a good vacation!

  7. Somehow I must have hit the wrong button or it’s Mozilla’s fault (my new browser). My PS got lost. It was about Silvio Berlusconi. The Italian Bishops now saying that he should clarify his sex – scandal (for the hypocritical Bishops that is, everybody else already knows…).

    What else they maybe want to know (or B’s wife?) is what will be the age of his next consort or some similar nonsense.

    As in ancient Roman times, B. (after all, according to Forbes the 37 richest world citizen), has mostly used his villas to offer visiting foreign statesmen some “Roman enjoyments”. And apparently all paid for by B himself.

    Where astrology comes in, B was born on Sept. 29, 1936, is that the man is currently suffering a nasty opposition of Saturn on his natal Saturn and squaring his natal Jupiter.

    But he will survive, most probably.

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